None of your conditionals are affecting the value of your preload-replace.
Preload replace processing happens very early in the template parsing engine. The engine simply applies the first value you give. You can't assign preload replace variables dynamically.
From the docs:
ExpressionEngine allows you to assign text to be replaced prior to a template being parsed, to save time typing and editing certain bits of text that might get used multiple times. Preload Replacements act as a straight string replacement for use later in the same template.
I personally have always solved my problems without this add-on, but it seems that most people use Stash as an easy way of getting around and setting variables in templates (which is against the point of a template):
Read the Stash docs and maybe it'll work for you, but I would recommend rethinking your execution as I would bet you can just avoid what you're trying to do using the native engine.